Decision Making at Arisaig

An overview of our decision making process and how we can improve.

What we do well:

Documenting meetings with companies and keeping minutes of our own internal meetings

Slow, methodical due diligence process, with reasonable peer review mechanisms

Collegiate decision-making is well-embedded in our culture, we do not have a ‘star fund manager’ mentality

Fairly constrained in what we regard as our circle of competence, meaning we are less likely to get distracted and mesmerised by “shiny new things”

Long term horizons are very well embedded, a big advantage in mitigating (if not eliminating) behavioural biases

What we need to improve:

Embed a culture of continuous improvement in our decision-making processes

Be conscious of how we manage our meetings: ensure everyone gets a voice, think about sequencing of speakers, be mindful of risks of anchoring, and tone / language used

Conduct pre-mortems on every investment proposal

Create more systematic peer review mechanisms for our Investment Case documents

Develop better systems for time-stamping our forecasts, and have a system of pro-active prompts which make us revisit past decisions at intermediate intervals

Improve our forecasting by applying base rates and probabilistic reasoning

 

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